Manufacturing and the Midterms
Tomorrow is Election Day across the United States. This has to be one of the most talked about midterm elections in recent history. Why are record numbers of voters coming out vote this midterm cycle? Perhaps because 2018 hasn’t been an easy year – from continued polarization over the Trump Presidency to battles over immigration policy to the controversial Kavanaugh confirmation hearings to devastating natural disasters to cowardly acts of violence such as the Pittsburgh Synagogue shooting most recently. People from the right and left are fired up and are coming out in droves to cast their votes.
As an ERP company that serves the manufacturing industry we are invested in the industry’s continual growth. Whether you attribute the thriving economy to Trump or not, the economy under the Trump Administration has been booming especially when it comes to manufacturing. From July 2017 to July 2018, U.S. manufacturing added 327,000 new jobs.
Here’s a bipartisan look at how tomorrow midterm election results might have an impact on the manufacturing industry.
- If Democrats take the House and Republicans hold onto the Senate: This scenario would likely stall some of Trump’s policies and result in little progress until the next election cycle in 2020. This could be okay as long as the economy keeps rolling – as Bank of America noted since 1952 with a Republican in the White House the S&P 500 has performed best the year after the midterms with a mixed Congress.
- If Democrats take both the House and Senate: This would probably produce the most volatile results, however this is also the most unlikely scenario. With Democrats in control of the House and Senate there could be new investigations into Trump’s conflict of interests and taxes and even impeachment talks. Trump would likely try to reach out to the Democrats to make bipartisan changes, but would the Democrats be willing to work with Trump? Recent corrections in the stock market could be signs that days of further economic growth are numbered.
- If Republicans hold onto both the House and the Senate: This scenario would advance Trump’s agenda. A Republican Congress could result in making the tax cuts permanent, more deconstruction of the Affordable Care Act, a harder line on immigration (could be controversial where companies in the U.S. are struggling to recruit workers to fill jobs), continued high risk strategy on trade, and more deregulation to boost economic growth. It’s hard to know whether these policies will have a lasting impact on growth.
No matter what side of the political aisle you stand, make sure you get out and exercise your right to vote tomorrow!
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